Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXUS61 KAKQ 152000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
today. Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and humidity
Friday and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening showers
and storms possible ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms develop late
this afternoon and evening. The main threats are large hail and
damaging winds, though a tornado or two is also possible.

A weak low pressure is located near the area this afternoon with a
warm front extending from just north of the area to a low pressure
system in the Midwest. The upper level low that has brought the rain
the last few days has opened up as a trough over the Mid-Atlantic. A
weak trough is expected to develop in the lee of the mountains. NW
flow aloft (35- 40 kt at 500 mb) will keep 35-40 kt of effective
shear blanketed over the area. Model guidance continues to show this
as enough initiation for isolated to scattered showers and storms to
develop. Convection aside, the mesoscale environment appears
supportive of strong updrafts and supercells, with very favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic profiles on various forecast soundings.
Dewpoints are currently in the mid 60s to upper 60s with current
SBCAPE values near 2500 J/kg, with higher values of SE VA/NE NC.
Effective shear values are also favorable with 30-40 kt values. THe
special 17z RNK sounding showed lapse rates at 8.1 C/km at the 700-
500mb, which is uncommon to see in this part of the US.
Environmental lapse rates near 7.0 C/km closer to our area would
support severe hail as well. Low LCLs are additionally supportive.
Recent high-res models continue to support several supercells
developing across the W and NW, moving SE through the evening into
central/SE VA and NE NC.

The SPC outlook has the majority of the area in a slight risk (level
2/5) across the piedmont into NE NC. A marginal risk encompasses the
rest of the CWA. On the most recent update, a hatched 15% hail
threat was introduced with the potential to see hail up to 2" (egg
size). Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, though
a tornado or two is also possible given the potential supercell
storm mode and some increased low-level wind shear in the evening
hours. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely to be issued this
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is also likely in any storm and
given we`ve had a wet past few days, WPC also has expanded the
Marginal risk for heavy rainfall into most our CWA. Storms may
linger through the late evening, but should taper off after midnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Friday and
Saturday afternoons/evenings, some of which could be strong to
severe.

- Temperatures trend warmer, with a summer-like feel on Friday.

Upper air ridging will continue to influence the region, while an
upper level low strengthens over the northern Midwest. The ridging
and sub-sequential SW flow will bring warm temperatures to the area.
Highs are looking to warm up to the upper 80s to lower 90s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the high humidity, the
day will feel hot and muggy in the lower to mid 90s during peak
daytime heating hours.

The big question for Friday will be if storms develop. The forcing
mechanisms do not look to be strong, with ridging aloft and fairly
constant pressure heights. With the highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s and the trough heights near 5800 mb, the capping may be more
easily broken with the weaker trough. Any lifting would have to come
from some boundary, potentially as excess energy from the MCS to the
northwest. The CAMs model (excluding the NAM) show initiation and a
large convective complex Friday evening into overnight. There is
uncertainty based on the recent CAMs, which show that storms may
develop earlier. Models tend to struggle with events like this, so
they are taken with caution. The coverage amount and timing remains
in low confidence as model show very little agreement. If these
storms can develop, they would enter a volatile environment for
strong to severe storms. The moisture and warm temperatures will
help the atmosphere become very favorable for high levels of
instability. Recent CAMS models show values 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE.
Efficient shear to support thunderstorm growth is likely with models
showing values of effective shear of 40-50 kt. Lapse rates from 7.0-
7.5 C/km and strong DCAPE could be favorable for strong winds and
severe hail. With this environment, Friday is an all-hazards type of
threat. In fact, SPC has upgraded the entire CWA today for this
event, now with most all of VA and MD under a slight risk (level
2/5) and NC under a marginal risk (level 1/5). SPC has the wind
threat as the highest risk at 15% for VA and MD as well as a 2%
tornado risk and 5% within the slight risk.

As for Saturday, a cold front will move through the region in the
afternoon, but after the daytime highs is reached in the upper 80s.
The environment will be similar to today`s, favorable with ample
instability and shear, but yet again the forcing mechanism will be
the limiting factor as the front is forecast to weaken before
reaching the area. With the warm temperatures like Friday,
instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE are expected. Supportive
shear values for storm development are forecast as well.
Additionally, SPC has the majority of the area in a slight risk
(level 2/5) except for the far NW counties of the CWA. There is
still lower confidence in timing and coverage, but isolated to
scattered showers and storms are possible, with a few potentially
becoming severe.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drying out Sunday into the early half of next week as high
pressure returns.

- Unsettled weather could return Wednesday and Thursday.

Behind Saturday`s cold front, high pressure will move back into the
region from the north. An upper air trough will take over the
majority of the CONUS. The next surface low pressure system will
begin to develop out in the Central Plains. With the high pressure,
dry conditions will be favorable for the first half of next week.
Temperatures will return to seasonable with the trough. An upper
level low is favored to develop in the Midwest Wednesday and
Thursday, which will lead to an unsettled weather pattern. Afternoon
showers and storms chance will increase in the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

CIGs have finally improved to MVFR/VFR at the terminals early
this afternoon with SCT-BKN cumulus/stratocumulus. Mostly VFR
through the rest of the 18z/15 TAF period. The main exception
to this will be a period of IFR-LIFR CIGs at SBY later tonight-
Fri AM. Also, scattered tstms are expected to develop west and
south of the terminals later this aftn...and could impact
RIC/ECG this evening-tonight. Have maintained PROB30 groups at
these two terminals roughly between 23-04z. The chc of thunder
is lower (but non-zero at ORF/PHF/SBY), so only have VCSH here.
Any storm will be capable of producing LIFR VSBYs in +RA as
well as brief gusty winds. The strongest storms could contain
hail as well. Still have relatively low confidence in a tstm
directly impacting one of the terminals. VFR across VA/NC later
tonight into Fri-AM.

Outlook: Additional showers and tstms are possible Friday aftn-
Friday night. While there is a decent amount of uncertainty with
respect to timing, some of the storms could be severe with gusts
up to 50 kt. Predominate VFR conditions return over the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with
  elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated
  NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday.

- Locally strong to severe storms possible into tonight and
  again late Friday/Friday night.

A weak pressure gradient across the area this aftn has led to
light and variable winds, slowly shifting from SW to more of an
E-SE direction across the lower Bay, and to the S elsewhere.
Seas are still a bit elevated with SE swell, at 3-4 ft, with
waves in the Bay/rivers/sound 1 foot or less, except near 2 ft
at the mouth of the bay. Scattered storms, potentially strong to
severe, are possible this evening/tonight, especially for the
Bay/rivers and will be handled via MWS/SMWs as needed.

Otherwise, winds increase a bit on friday, becoming S-SW
~10-15 kt, with yet another round of scattered showers and
storms possible, but mainly holding off until very late in the
aftn or early evening into Friday night. There may be brief
period of elevated, near sub-SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon
and evening, especially across the lower James/lower Bay. Winds
veer around to the W/NW Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of
a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with
a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into
Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond-
Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in
minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for
more site- specific information.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/SW
NEAR TERM...KMC/SW
SHORT TERM...KMC/SW
LONG TERM...KMC/SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...LKB
HYDROLOGY...